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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020
 
...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...18.9N 84.8W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel
 
 A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* South of Tulum to Punta Allen
* West of Dzilam to Progreso
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Watches will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf
coast later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.9
North, longitude 84.8 West.  Zeta is moving toward the northwest
near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A northwestward motion with an increase in
forward speed is expected over the next day or so, followed by a
turn toward the north Tuesday night.  A faster northward to
north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the
northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the
southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf
Coast on Wednesday.
 
Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a
hurricane later this morning.  Additional strengthening is expected
before Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 992 mb (29.29 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
 
RAINFALL:  Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of
12 inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta’s track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman
Islands, and central to western Cuba.
 
Between Tuesday night and Thursday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4
inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches is expected across portions
of the central U.S. Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, southern
Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta.
The expected rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with minor river flooding.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late today.  Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area in Mexico by late today.  Tropical storm conditions could occur
in the warning area in western Cuba beginning later today.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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