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Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020
 
...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE TO
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...18.0N 83.6W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel
 
 A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 83.6 West.  Zeta has
been meandering recently, but a northwestward motion is expected
over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the north.  On
the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the
northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel late Monday, move
over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the
northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Zeta is expected to become a hurricane before it moves near or over
the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
 
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta’s track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western
Cuba,  and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico.  Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches
possible across southern Florida and the Keys over the next 2 days,
with isolated storm totals of 8 inches.
 
By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to
affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday.  Tropical
storm conditions could occur in the warning area in western Cuba on
Monday.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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