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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020
 
...ZETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 88.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Intracoastal City,
Louisiana, to Navarre, Florida, including Lake Borgne, Lake
Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Mobile Bay.
 
A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana,
to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Lake Pontchartrain,
Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the 
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line,
Florida.
 
The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a 
Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Allen to Progreso, including 
Cozumel.
 
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and
Mobile Bay
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen to Progreso Mexico
* Cozumel
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there
is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water
moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during
the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was 
located over the northern Yucatan Peninsula near latitude 21.0 
North, longitude 88.4 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 
14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue 
today.  Zeta should turn toward the north tonight, and a faster 
northward to north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday.  
On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the 
southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, and over the central 
Gulf of Mexico tonight.  Zeta is forecast to approach the northern 
Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and make landfall within the hurricane 
warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night. 
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Zeta is forecast to re-strengthen when it moves 
over the southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, and become a 
hurricane again later today.  Zeta is forecast to be at or near 
hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast late 
Wednesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area within areas of onshore 
flow. 
 
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...4-6
ft
Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion
Bay...2-4 ft
Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola
Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
RAINFALL:  Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta’s track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the Cayman
Islands. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible across
western Cuba through Tuesday.
 
An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf
Coast tonight, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on
Wednesday.  The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will
push northeast from eastern Louisiana, across southern Mississippi,
Alabama, northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through the
southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are
expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning 
area in Mexico this morning.
 
Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with tropical storm 
conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions 
are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the 
northern Gulf coast by late Wednesday, and tropical storm 
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area late 
Wednesday.
 
TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday and Wednesday
night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the
western Panhandle of Florida.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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