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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020
 
...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS TODAY AND
MONDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 83.8W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel
 
 A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 83.8 West.  Zeta is 
nearly stationary, but a generally northwestward motion is 
expected over the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the 
center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move 
near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel 
late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and 
reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and 
Zeta could become a hurricane by the time it moves near or over the 
Yucatan Peninsula late Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 
inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of 
Zeta’s track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western 
Cuba,  and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico.  Additional 
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches are
possible across southern Florida and the Keys over the next 2 days, 
with isolated storm totals of 8 inches.  

By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to 
affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash 
flooding in urban areas.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday.  Tropical storm 
conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan
peninsula late Monday, and could occur in the warning area in 
Western Cuba on Monday.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Watch area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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