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TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL282020
1500 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO NAVARRE FLORIDA
* LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA
BAY...AND
MOBILE BAY
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ALLEN TO PROGRESO MEXICO
* COZUMEL
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING 
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE 
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR 
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT 
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS 
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR 
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER 
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N  89.5W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N  89.5W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  89.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.1N  90.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.7N  91.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.3N  89.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.2N  85.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.5N  76.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.0N  66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 220SE 300SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N  89.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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