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TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL282020
0900 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY...
LOUISIANA...TO NAVARRE...FLORIDA...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA BAY...AND MOBILE BAY.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA...
TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...
LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE...
FLORIDA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA ALLEN TO PROGRESO...
INCLUDING COZUMEL.
 
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO NAVARRE FLORIDA
* LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA
BAY...AND
MOBILE BAY
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ALLEN TO PROGRESO MEXICO
* COZUMEL
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING 
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... 
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION 
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM 
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS 
A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS 
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM 
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL 
OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF 
LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM 
THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT 
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  88.4W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  88.4W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  87.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.3N  90.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.4N  91.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N  91.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 31.7N  88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 36.5N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 40.3N  70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 210SE 180SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N  88.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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