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HURRICANE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL282020
2100 UTC MON OCT 26 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA 
TO NAVARRE FLORIDA INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... 
VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY. 
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST
OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR PINAR DEL RIO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO
* COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA ALLEN MEXICO
* WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO NAVARRE FLORIDA
* LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA BAY
AND MOBILE BAY 
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  86.0W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  30SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  86.0W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  85.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.5N  87.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.1N  89.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.2N  91.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.8N  91.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 30.8N  88.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 35.0N  83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 42.0N  68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N  86.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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