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Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020
 
Zeta continues to move rapidly over land, and its maximum sustained 
winds are estimated to be near 45 kt over the southeastern 
quadrant, with thew highest winds occuring over elevated locations. 
The wind gust factor continues to be higher than usual due to the 
interaction with land.

Zeta continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving near 
055/42 kt.  The cyclone should accelerate some more ahead of a 
strong 500-mb trough moving into the eastern United States over the 
next day or so.  The official track forecast is in reasonable 
agreement with the global model predictions.  
 
The pressure pattern of Zeta is becoming distorted, and starting to 
take on an extratropical appearance as the cyclone begins to 
interact with a nearby frontal system.  By this afternoon, the 
global models indicate that the system will become a frontal low and 
thus extratropical.  Some short-term baroclinic strengthening is 
possible over the western Atlantic, but the guidance suggests that 
the system will become absorbed into the frontal zone in 36 hours 
or so.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and
power outages, will continue to spread eastward across portions of 
the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia through this afternoon due 
to Zeta's fast forward speed. 

2.  Through today, heavy rainfall is expected near and in advance of 
Zeta from portions of the Ohio Valley, into the central Appalachians 
and Mid-Atlantic.  This rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small 
stream, and isolated minor river flooding. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 36.5N  81.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 12H  30/0000Z 39.4N  73.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  30/1200Z 42.0N  60.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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