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Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

The cloud pattern of Zeta became better organized today, with deep 
convection forming over and around the center and some banding 
features developing.  The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters 
recently found surface winds to near 70 kt over the inner 
northeastern quadrant of the circulation and a central pressure of 
around 981 mb, signifying that the system had become a hurricane.  
Given the increased organization over very warm waters, some 
additional strengthening is possible before the center crosses the 
east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.  Some weakening 
should occur while Zeta interacts with land tonight and early 
Tuesday.  Once the center moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico 
tomorrow, atmospheric and oceanic conditions are conducive for some 
re-strengthening.  When Zeta moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico 
later on Wednesday, cooler shelf waters and some increase in 
southwesterly shear should halt the intensification process, with 
some weakening possible by the time the center reaches the northern 
Gulf Coast, but Zeta is still expected to be at or near hurricane 
intensity at landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the 
previous one and is near or above the model consensus.

The hurricane continues to move on a generally northwestward track, 
or at about 305/10 kt.  There are basically no changes to the track 
forecast reasoning, or to the forecast itself.  For the next couple 
of days, Zeta should move around the southwestern and western 
periphery of a mid-level high pressure area centered just east of 
Florida.  Thereafter, a shortwave trough approaching from the west 
is likely to cause the cyclone to accelerate north-northeastward to 
northeastward and move over the southeastern and eastern United 
States.  The system should move off the northeast U.S. coast and 
become an extratropical cyclone within the next 4 days.  The 
guidance has come into better agreement since yesterday, and the 
official track forecast is very close to the corrected model 
consensus, HCCA.

Storm Surge, Hurricane, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued 
for a portion of the northern U.S. Gulf Coast.

KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in 
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this evening 
through early Tuesday.  Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall is expected 
across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and central to 
western Cuba, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.  

2. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are 
possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and 
Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect. Residents in the 
watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 

3. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected 
from portions of the central Gulf Coast into the southern 
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. 
This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor 
river flooding.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 19.5N  86.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 20.5N  87.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 22.1N  89.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 24.2N  91.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 26.8N  91.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  29/0600Z 30.8N  88.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 72H  29/1800Z 35.0N  83.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  30/1800Z 42.0N  68.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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