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Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020
 
Epsilon continues to exhibit an inner core of deep convection. In 
fact, only in the past couple of hours has the eye become difficult 
to locate in satellite images. A larger comma-shaped cloud shield 
surrounds the circulation, and extends several hundred miles from 
the center. Epsilon passed over a buoy array this morning where 
pressures as low as 957.6 mb were recorded. In addition, a pair of 
ASCAT overpasses late this morning showed a large area of winds of 
60-65 kt in the southern semicircle. This data supported an 
intensity of 70 kt earlier, and the cyclone's appearance has not 
changed much since then. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 70 
kt.

The hurricane will likely hold its own for the next 6-12 h as it 
traverses over waters of about 24 C, while in a fairly favorable 
atmospheric environment downstream of a mid- to upper-level trough. 
After 12 h, Epsilon should begin to move over waters of 20 degrees C 
or less. The combination of the much cooler water temperatures and 
trough interaction should cause the cyclone to begin an 
extratropical transition that is forecast to complete by late 
Sunday. The NHC intensity forecast was nudged a little higher in the 
24-48 h time frames due to a slight increase in the guidance, and 
the latest forecast is very near the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. 
Regardless of exactly when Epsilon becomes extratropical, it is 
still expected to remain a very large and powerful cyclone until it 
merges with a larger low to its north in a few days. 

Epsilon is accelerating and is now moving northeastward at 19 kt. 
The cyclone should continue accelerating toward the northeast 
through Sunday in the mid-latitude westerlies, and could reach a 
forward motion of about 40 kt toward the northeast or east-northeast 
by Sunday evening. This fast motion is expected to continue through 
early next week. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the 
previous one, and is in good agreement with the tightly clustered 
track guidance.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 39.4N  58.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 41.5N  54.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 44.9N  46.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  26/0600Z 48.9N  35.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  26/1800Z 53.5N  25.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  27/0600Z 58.5N  19.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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