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Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020
 
The satellite structure of Epsilon has evolved over the last 6 
hours, with visible imagery suggesting concentric eyewalls, and 
recent 89 GHz GMI and AMSR2 microwave imagery indicating the 
secondary eyewall has nearly closed off around the smaller core. The 
current intensity of Epsilon was kept at 75 kt for this advisory, 
close to the satellite estimates, although the 50-kt wind field has 
expanded significantly in the northern semicircle as indicated by 
recent scatterometer data.

Epsilon has maintained its northward heading with a bit faster 
forward motion (360/10 kt). The track reasoning remains the same, 
where the cyclone will be steered to the north around the westward 
extent of a deep-layer ridge and then will move quite quickly to 
the northeast as it encounters stronger deep-layer westerly flow 
ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. This same mid-latitude trough 
will interact with Epsilon after 60 h and contribute to the 
formation of a large and powerful baroclinic cyclone by the end of 
the forecast period.  No significant changes were made to the track 
forecast.

Vertical wind shear is expected to remain low over the next two days 
and intensity changes will likely be influenced by inner core 
fluctuations. The intensity guidance does suggest some modest 
intensification is possible in the short-term as Epsilon moves over 
a warm eddy in the Gulf Stream, assuming the current secondary 
eyewall consolidates. Based on this reasoning, the official 
intensity forecast was nudged slightly upward for the first 24 h. 
Afterwards, slow weakening is expected but Epsilon’s 34- and 50-kt 
wind field should continue to expand to the south while it 
undergoes extratropical transition, completing the process by early 
Monday.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 35.5N  61.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 37.0N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 38.9N  59.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 41.9N  53.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 45.6N  45.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  26/0600Z 50.0N  34.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  26/1800Z 54.0N  24.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake
 
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