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Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020
 
Epsilon's structure has not changed appreciably in the last 12 
hours, with a small eye intermittently appearing in geostationary 
satellite and polar-orbiting microwave imagery with additional 
well-defined curved outer bands. The initial intensity is kept at 75 
kt based on SAB and TAFB satellite estimates and the satellite 
trends.

The cyclone continues to move to the north but at a slightly faster 
speed (360/09 kt). This northward track is expected for the next day 
or so as the hurricane is primarily steered by a deep-layer ridge 
located to its east. Thereafter, Epsilon is forecast to turn toward 
the northeast and accelerate due to strong mid-latitude westerlies 
ahead of an approaching longwave trough. By 60 h, Epsilon will be 
moving rapidly over cooler waters and is expected to be completing 
extratropical transition. The latest NHC official track is very 
similar to the previous one and is near the corrected-consensus 
models.

Epsilon remains in a low vertical wind shear environment and will 
actually be moving over slightly warmer waters over the next day as 
it passes across a warm Gulf Stream eddy. It is unclear, however, 
that the current storm structure would allow for any strengthening. 
Thus, the official forecast maintains the current intensity for the 
next 36 h, and it is likely that inner-core processes will dictate 
any short-term fluctuations in intensity. After 36 h, slow weakening 
should begin as southwesterly vertical wind shear gradually 
increases and Epsilon reaches the north edge of the Gulf Stream. 
However, the system is likely to merge with another mid-latitude 
cyclone and become a powerful extratropical low at the end of the 
forecast period.  The new NHC intensity forecast closely mirrors the 
previous one and the latest global model wind speed consensus 
forecast.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/1500Z 34.1N  61.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 35.6N  61.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 37.5N  60.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 40.3N  56.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 43.7N  49.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  26/0000Z 48.1N  39.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  26/1200Z 52.5N  27.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake
 
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