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Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020
 
The eye became a little more apparent on satellite images but 
recently has become less defined.  The system has a somewhat 
ragged-looking Central Dense Overcast with a broad outer cloud band 
wrapping around the western semicircle of the circulation.  
Upper-level outflow is fairly well-defined over the northern portion 
of the system.  The current intensity estimate is kept at 75 kt in 
agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective ADT 
estimates from UW-CIMSS.  Since Epsilon should be passing near a 
modestly warm oceanic eddy during the next day or so, some slight 
short-term restrengthening is allowed for in the official forecast.  
Later in the forecast period, gradual weakening should occur due to 
cooler waters, but the system is likely to remain a strong cyclone 
for the next few days.  By around 72 hours, the GFS and SHIPS 
guidance indicates that Epsilon will have undergone extratropical 
transition over the north Atlantic.  Afterward, the global models 
show the system merging with another cyclone at the higher 
latitudes.
 
Epsilon continues to move just a bit to the west of due north, or
at about 345/8 kt.  The cyclone is expected to move mainly
northward on the western side of a mid-tropospheric ridge during
the next couple of days.  By around 48 hours, Epsilon should
turn northeastward and accelerate as it becomes caught up in
the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official track forecast is
not much different from the previous one, and is very close to
the latest corrected dynamical consensus, HCCA, prediction.
 
The forecast wind radii, which show the cyclone expanding over the
next few days, are in good agreement with the dynamical consensus
radii guidance, RVCN.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Winds at Bermuda will subside overnight, and the Tropical Storm 
Warning for that island has been discontinued.
 
2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents
are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater
Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 32.6N  61.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 33.8N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 35.8N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 37.8N  60.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 40.5N  56.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 44.3N  50.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 48.4N  41.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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