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Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

Earlier aircraft data indicate that Epsilon has lost a lot of 
strength since yesterday. The maximum flight-level winds were only 
79 kt, considerably less than satellite alone would indicate.  
However, satellite images show that the eye has recently become 
better defined, and the weakening trend has probably stopped.  The 
initial wind speed is set to 80 kt, a bit higher than recent 
aircraft data with the satellite trend reversal and because the 
pressure was still about 965 mb on the last pass.  

Epsilon's wobbling have continued overnight, but a longer-term 
12-hour motion suggests that the hurricane is still moving to the 
northwest (325/6 kt). The cyclone should turn north-northwest soon 
and northward by tomorrow while it moves through a break in the 
central Atlantic ridge. All the guidance is showing the hurricane 
accelerating northeastward starting this weekend into early next 
week as it becomes entrained in the fast mid-latitude flow.  While 
the new forecast is a little west of the previous NHC track for the 
first day or two, it is still east of the model consensus, with 
only cosmetic speed changes at long range.
 
The forecast intensity could oscillate up and down during the next 
couple of days while Epsilon moves over marginally warm waters, and 
potentially undergoes an eyewall replacement and/or a conducive 
trough interaction.  The intensity forecast through 48 hours is a 
compromise of these opposing factors, showing little change.  At 
longer range, while the SSTs cool, a mid-latitude trough is likely 
to keep Epsilon's strength mostly intact as the hurricane 
eventually contributes to a rather significant non-tropical cyclone 
over the far North Atlantic on day 4.  The forecast for early next 
week is a little higher than the last one based primarily on the 
global model fields. 
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda
through this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest
approach east of the island.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect
for Bermuda.
 
2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents
are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater
Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 30.9N  61.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 31.9N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 33.4N  61.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 35.1N  61.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 36.9N  60.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  25/0000Z 39.6N  57.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 43.0N  50.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 52.5N  30.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin
 
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