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Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020
 
Epsilon is maintaining a healthy satellite appearance this morning 
after its rapid intensification last night. A 10-to-15 n mi-wide 
eye is evident in visible satellite imagery this morning, and 0815Z 
GMI 89 GHz microwave imagery shows a closed eyewall with deep 
convection surrounding the well-defined center. Objective satellite 
estimates from UW-CIMSS and subjective Dvorak classifications from 
SAB and TAFB support raising the initial intensity to 80 kt with 
this advisory.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
should be in the area this afternoon for a better estimate.

Epsilon took a brief westward jog this morning, and its initial 
motion is now estimated at 285/10 kt. A mid-level ridge to the 
north-northeast of the cyclone should continue steering Epsilon 
toward the west-northwest today with a slightly slower forward 
speed. Then, another ridge is forecast to build to the east of 
the hurricane, which should turn the cyclone toward the northwest 
on Thursday and northward on Friday.  Epsilon is forecast to 
pass east of Bermuda and make its closest approach to the island 
Thursday afternoon or evening.  As the hurricane gains latitude and 
becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, the cyclone 
will likely accelerate northeastward across the central Atlantic 
this weekend. Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track 
forecast, mainly beyond 48 h when more spread is noted in the track 
guidance.

Weak vertical wind shear and waters with marginal oceanic heat 
content could allow for some additional modest strengthening 
today, and the NHC intensity forecast now brings Epsilon to a 85-kt 
hurricane in 12 h. Then, Epsilon's intensity is likely to plateau as 
environmental conditions gradually become less conducive for 
additional development. Beyond 36-48 h, increasing southerly 
deep-layer shear and cooler waters are forecast to induce a slow 
weakening trend, although the tropical-storm-force wind field should 
expand as Epsilon moves into the mid-latitudes and begins its 
extratropical transition. The forecast calls for Epsilon to be 
extratropical by 120 h, but it is expected to remain a powerful 
cyclone as it moves across the northern Atlantic at the end of the 
forecast period.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1.  Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning 
later today and continuing intermittently through late Thursday, 
when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the
island. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Bermuda.
 
2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the
coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the
Leeward Islands.  These conditions are expected to spread to
portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 29.1N  59.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 29.6N  60.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 30.9N  60.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 32.3N  61.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 33.7N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  24/0000Z 35.0N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 36.6N  60.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 42.0N  51.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 49.5N  33.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
 
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