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BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
100 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020
 
...DELTA STRENGTHENS BACK TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 91.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, Mississippi including Calcasieu
Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake
Borgne
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island, TX to Sabine Pass
* East of Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama
border
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass, Texas to Sabine Pass
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 91.3 West.  Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A northwestward
motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected during the next
several hours. A turn to the north is forecast to occur tonight
followed by a north-northeastward motion on Friday and Friday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the
central Gulf of Mexico today, and approach the northern Gulf coast
on Friday.  Delta is forecast to move inland within the hurricane
warning area by late Friday or Friday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Delta is expected
to become a major hurricane again by tonight or early Friday.  Some
weakening is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast by
late Friday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 973 mb (28.73 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Pecan Island to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...3-5 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
MS/AL border to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3
ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday evening, with tropical storm conditions
expected within this area earlier on Friday.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas on
Friday.
 
RAINFALL:  Delta is expected to produce an additional 1 to 3 inches
of rain over the far northwestern Yucatan Peninsula through early
Thursday.  The additional rainfall may still result in areas of
significant flash flooding.
 
Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions
of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower to Middle
Mississippi Valley.  These rainfall amounts will lead to flash,
urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this
weekend.
 
TORNADOES:  The risk of a few tornadoes will increase late tonight
into Friday over portions of southern Louisiana, southern 
Mississippi, and southwest Alabama.
 
SURF:  Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast later today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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