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BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 9A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Corrected distance from Cozumel
 
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DELTA HEADING
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME
WINDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 84.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progreso Mexico
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor
the progress of Delta.  Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will
likely be issued for a portion of this area on Wednesday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 19.2 North,
longitude 84.5 West.  Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near
17 mph (28 km/h).  A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is
expected over the next couple of days. A slower northwestward to
north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a
northward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern
portion of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday.
Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday
afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through
Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Delta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is possible before the
center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula early Wednesday.
Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan
peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves
over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
in areas of onshore winds by as much as 9 to 13 ft above normal tide
levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo
Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along
the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo
Catoche.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.
 
WIND:  In the Yucatan Peninsula, potentially catastrophic
hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area
late tonight and early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning later this evening.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday.
In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the
warning area.
 
RAINFALL:  Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.
 
Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba.  This rainfall may result in areas of
flash flooding and mudslides.
 
Later this week, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain,
with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches, over portions of the
central Gulf Coast.  These rainfall amounts may lead to flash,
urban and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually
spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United
States as well.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around
the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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