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BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020
 
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DELTA 
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 82.0W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum
* Dzilam to Progresso
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.8 North, 
longitude 82.0 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest 
near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A faster northwestward motion is expected 
to begin later today through Wednesday night.  On the forecast 
track, the center of Delta is expected to continue to pass southwest 
of the Cayman Islands this morning, and move over the northeastern 
portion of the Yucatan peninsula early Wednesday.  Delta is forecast 
to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be 
over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the 
next 48 hours, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane when 
it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday and over the Gulf of 
Mexico through Thursday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft data is 962 mb (28.41 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  An extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along
coast of the Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area,
near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
today.  In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane conditions are expected 
in the warning area early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions 
beginning later today or tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are 
expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday. 
In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the 
warning area and possible in the watch area near the same
time.
 
RAINFALL:  Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.
 
Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash
flooding and mudslides.
 
Later this week, Delta is expected to bring heavy rainfall to
portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and
southeastern United States.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Delta will be affected land areas around
the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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