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Tropical Storm DELTA


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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020
 
...DELTA QUICKLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE CARIBBEAN...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE STORM...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...16.1N 79.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Artemisa
* Isle of Youth
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Isle of Youth
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula 
should monitor the progress of this system. 
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 79.2 West.  Delta is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast later today.  A faster northwestward
motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.  On the forecast track,
the center of Delta is expected to move away from Jamaica later
today, move near or over the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and
approach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel Tuesday afternoon or 
evening.  Delta is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of 
Mexico Tuesday night, and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico 
on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected during the
next few days, and Delta is expected to become a hurricane tonight 
or Tuesday before it nears western Cuba.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the south
coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and dangerous waves.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late today or tonight.  Hurricane conditions are expected
within the Hurricane Warning area in western Cuba by late Tuesday
afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected by Tuesday
morning.  Hurricane conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth
beginning Tuesday afternoon with tropical storm conditions expected
by early Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba on Tuesday.
 
RAINFALL:  Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall could
lead to significant flash floods and mudslides.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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