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Hurricane DELTA (Text)


ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number  14...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

Corrected to remove Mobile Bay from the Storm Surge Warning area
 
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 90.9W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Sabine Pass to Ocean
Springs, Mississippi, including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake
Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne.
 
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast from east of Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for the northern Gulf
of Mexico coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Sabine Pass, and east
of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.
 
The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from the
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Mobile Bay.
 
The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Rio Lagartos to Dzilam, Mexico.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, Mississippi including Calcasieu
Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake 
Borgne
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island, TX to Sabine Pass
* East of Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama
border
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass, Texas to Sabine Pass
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 90.9 West.  Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A generally
northwestward motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected
through early Thursday.  A north-northwestward motion is expected by
late Thursday, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion
is forecast on Friday and Friday night.  On the forecast track, the
center of Delta will move over the southern and central Gulf of
Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast within
the hurricane warning area on Friday.  Delta is forecast to move
inland within the hurricane warning area by late Friday or Friday
night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast while the hurricane moves over the
southern and central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and Delta is
expected to become a major hurricane again.  Some weakening is
forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Pecan Island to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...3-5 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
MS/AL border to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3 
ft 
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday evening, with tropical storm conditions
expected within this area earlier on Friday.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas on
Friday.
 
RAINFALL:  Delta is expected to produce an additional 1 to 3 inches
of rain over the far northwestern Yucatan Peninsula through early
Thursday.  The additional rainfall may still result in areas of
significant flash flooding.
 
Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions
of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower to Middle
Mississippi Valley.  These rainfall amounts will lead to flash,
urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this
weekend.
 
TORNADOES:  The risk of a few tornadoes will increase late Thursday
night into Friday over portions of southern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, and southwest Alabama.
 
SURF:  Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast on Thursday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg
 
NNNN

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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2020 12:10:26 UTC