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BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020
 
...DELTA EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE 
MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS INCREASINGLY 
LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING 
FRIDAY... 
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 89.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Alabama/Florida border including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dzilam to Progreso Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to west of High Island Texas
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Bay St. Louis Mississippi,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located 
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 89.5 West. Delta is moving 
toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A northwestward motion 
with a reduction in forward speed is expected through early 
Thursday.  A north-northwestward motion is expected by late 
Thursday, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is 
forecast on Friday and Friday night.  On the forecast track, the 
center of Delta will move over the southern and central Gulf of 
Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast within 
the hurricane watch area on Friday.  Delta is forecast to move 
inland within the hurricane watch area by late Friday or Friday 
night. 
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that the maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with 
higher gusts.  Re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves 
over the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and 
Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again.  Some weakening 
is is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on 
Friday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).
 
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force 
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 977 mb (28.85 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  Water levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan 
peninsula will gradually subside this evening.
 
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Pecan Island, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion
Bay...7-11 ft
Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3
ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue within
portions of the warning area in the Yucatan peninsula during the 
next few hours.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the 
watch areas along the Gulf coast by late Thursday night or early 
Friday with hurricane conditions possible within the hurricane 
watch area by Friday.
 
RAINFALL:  Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 
6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across 
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result 
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches 
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions 
of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower to Middle 
Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, 
urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. 
As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally 
higher amounts, is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this 
weekend.
 
TORNADOES:  The risk of a few tornadoes will increase late Thursday
night into Friday over portions of southern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, and southwest Alabama.
 
SURF:  Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the 
northern and western Gulf coast on Thursday. These swells are likely 
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please 
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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