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HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL262020
0300 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING
CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SARGENT TEXAS
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS
A
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N  93.6W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N  93.6W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N  93.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 27.4N  93.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.8N  93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.0N  91.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.5N  90.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 34.9N  88.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 36.5N  87.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N  93.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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