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HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL262020
2100 UTC THU OCT 08 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST WEST
OF SAN LUIS PASS TO SARGENT.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING
CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SARGENT TEXAS
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT 
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS 
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR 
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER 
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N  93.4W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  959 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N  93.4W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N  93.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.3N  93.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 28.6N  93.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.0N  92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  25SE  20SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 140SE 100SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 32.9N  91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.3N  89.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 35.8N  87.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N  93.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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