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HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL262020
0900 UTC THU OCT 08 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO OCEAN SPRINGS...MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING CALCASIEU
LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE
BORGNE
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND...TX TO SABINE PASS
* EAST OF OCEAN SPRINGS...MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS...TEXAS TO SABINE PASS
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  91.8W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  91.8W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  91.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.6N  93.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.4N  93.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 28.8N  93.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.3N  92.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 110SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.3N  90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.6N  89.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N  91.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 
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