ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL262020
2100 UTC WED OCT 07 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER INCLUDING
CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE AND MOBILE BAY
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO
* COZUMEL
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS TO WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
* EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI... 
INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  89.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  60SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  89.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N  88.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.2N  91.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.8N  92.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.7N  93.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.1N  92.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.6N  91.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.7N  90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 37.0N  85.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N  89.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
NNNN