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HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL262020
1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER INCLUDING 
CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE 
MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE AND MOBILE BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM
WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF GRAND
ISLE, LOUISIANA TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE
CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR CUBA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER INCLUDING 
CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE 
MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO
* COZUMEL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM MEXICO
* DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS TO WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
* EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI...
INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE 
COASTLINE, IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. 

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  88.0W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  88.0W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N  87.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.8N  90.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.3N  92.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.0N  93.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 28.1N  93.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.8N  92.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.2N  90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 36.5N  86.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 39.5N  81.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N  88.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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