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HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL262020
0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO
* COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
* ISLE OF YOUTH
* PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM MEXICO
* DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DELTA.  HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  85.1W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  85.1W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  84.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.9N  87.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.3N  89.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.6N  91.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.0N  92.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.8N  92.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.0N  92.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  90SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 33.0N  89.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 36.0N  86.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N  85.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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