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HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL262020
0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO DZILAM.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO
* COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
* ISLE OF YOUTH
* PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM
* DZILAM TO PROGRESSO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  81.3W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  45SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  81.3W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  80.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.7N  83.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.4N  85.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.8N  88.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.0N  90.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.2N  91.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.8N  92.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  80SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 29.8N  91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 34.0N  88.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N  81.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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