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TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL262020
2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO
RIO LAGARTOS...INCLUDING COZUMEL.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
* TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
* COZUMEL
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA
* ISLE OF YOUTH
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* ISLE OF YOUTH
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  79.4W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  20SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  45SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  79.4W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  79.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.1N  80.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N  83.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.0N  86.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 22.6N  88.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.7N  90.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.8N  91.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 28.5N  91.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 33.0N  89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N  79.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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