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Hurricane Delta Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020
 
Delta made landfall around 23Z on the southwest Louisiana coast,
and has been weakening over land.  Assuming a fairly rapid
weakening since landfall, the estimated current intensity is
around 65 kt.  Delta will continue weakening, and should become a
tropical storm overnight.  The system is likely to be reduced to a
tropical depression on Saturday.  This is in reasonable agreement
with the NOAA corrected consensus prediction, HCCA.
 
Center position estimates from surface observations and satellite
imagery indicate that the motion is north-northeastward, or 025/13
kt.  Over the next couple of days, Delta should turn northeastward
on the east side of a mid-level trough and move into the Tennessee
Valley region.
 
The official forecast shows dissipation in 72 hours, but the global
models suggest that this could occur a little sooner.  Nonetheless,
the vorticity and moisture remnants of Delta are likely to move over
the northeastern United States early next week.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Life-threatening storm surge is still occurring along portions 
of the Louisiana coast, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from 
Cameron, Louisiana, eastward to the Mouth of the Pearl River.  
Water levels will slowly subside on Saturday as Delta moves farther 
inland.
 
2. Tropical-storm-force winds and gusts to hurricane force will 
continue to spread inland overnight across portions of Louisiana 
near the path of Delta’s center.
 
3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor
to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana through Saturday.
Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 30.6N  92.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 12H  10/1200Z 32.2N  91.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/0000Z 33.7N  89.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  11/1200Z 35.1N  87.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  12/0000Z 37.0N  85.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/1200Z 39.5N  81.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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