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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL252020
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020
 
...GAMMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 86.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to
Dzilam, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the north coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula west of Dzilam to Progreso.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 86.9 West. Gamma is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion
should continue at a slower forward speed today.  A turn toward the
north is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or
west-southwest Sunday night or Monday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Gamma should move inland over the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula on Sunday.
 
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph 
(85 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected 
before Gamma makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.  After 
landfall, a slight weakening is expected.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure extrapolated by the Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft is 992 mb (29.29 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
RAINFALL:  Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with
maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across
the northeastern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.
 
A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away
from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and
northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
 
Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is
expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are spreading into the Tropical
Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and
these conditions should spread across the remainder of the warning
area through Sunday.  Tropical Storm conditions are possible
within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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