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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...
...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche,
and a Tropical Storm Watch south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa
Maya and west of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya
* West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Five was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 84.7
West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15
km/h), and a gradual turn toward the north-northwest with a
decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone
should be near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm by Saturday morning.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba. A separate area of
significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in
the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas, with
rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and
Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is
expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area by early Saturday, and are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch area on Saturday and Sunday.
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.