ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL252020
0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO
DZILAM...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO DZILAM MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA MEXICO
* WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  86.9W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  40SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  86.9W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  86.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.2N  87.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.1N  87.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  20SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.7N  88.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE  40SE  20SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.8N  88.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE  40SE  40SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.6N  89.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  40SE  40SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.2N  90.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  40SE  40SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 20.5N  92.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 19.5N  93.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N  86.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
NNNN