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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL252020
1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO
CATOCHE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO
PUERTO COSTA MAYA AND WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA
* WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N  84.7W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN   40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N  84.7W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  84.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.9N  85.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.8N  86.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.6N  87.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.4N  87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.0N  87.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N  88.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  30SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.5N  90.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.5N  92.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N  84.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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