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Tropical Depression Gamma Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL252020
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020
 
The last couple of legs of the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft mission and recent METOP-A and C scatterometer passes
support lowering Gamma's initial intensity to 30 kt for this 
advisory.  Conventional satellite imagery reveals that the cyclone 
has been devoid of deep convection for nearly 10 hours and is on 
its way to becoming a post-tropical remnant low.  Strong southerly 
shear and a stable, relatively dry surrounding air mass should 
prevent any significant convective regeneration as the system 
approaches the northern coast of the northwestern Yucatan peninsula 
tomorrow.  After the remnants of Gamma makes landfall, dissipation 
is likely to occur Wednesday as larger, Tropical Storm Delta 
approaches the Yucatan Channel.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be southwestward, or 230/4 kt.
A continued southwestward or west-southwestward motion is expected
through Wednesday morning while moving inland over the northern
Mexican State of Yucatan.  The NHC forecast track is basically an
update of this morning's package and is based on the various
multi-model consensus aids.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Gamma is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall through 
midweek over portions of southeast Mexico, including the Mexican 
states of Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall could result 
in areas of flash flooding.
 
2. Gusty winds are likely along portions of the northern coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula later today through Tuesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 22.1N  88.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 21.6N  88.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/1800Z 20.9N  89.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  07/0600Z 20.0N  90.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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