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Tropical Depression Gamma Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020
The last couple of legs of the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft mission and recent METOP-A and C scatterometer passes
support lowering Gamma's initial intensity to 30 kt for this
advisory. Conventional satellite imagery reveals that the cyclone
has been devoid of deep convection for nearly 10 hours and is on
its way to becoming a post-tropical remnant low. Strong southerly
shear and a stable, relatively dry surrounding air mass should
prevent any significant convective regeneration as the system
approaches the northern coast of the northwestern Yucatan peninsula
tomorrow. After the remnants of Gamma makes landfall, dissipation
is likely to occur Wednesday as larger, Tropical Storm Delta
approaches the Yucatan Channel.
The initial motion is estimated to be southwestward, or 230/4 kt.
A continued southwestward or west-southwestward motion is expected
through Wednesday morning while moving inland over the northern
Mexican State of Yucatan. The NHC forecast track is basically an
update of this morning's package and is based on the various
multi-model consensus aids.
1. Gamma is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall through
midweek over portions of southeast Mexico, including the Mexican
states of Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall could result
in areas of flash flooding.
2. Gusty winds are likely along portions of the northern coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula later today through Tuesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 22.1N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 21.6N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/1800Z 20.9N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 07/0600Z 20.0N 90.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND