ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 There haven't been a lot of changes with Wilfred today, with the northern side of the circulation looking rather dry while the center remains close to a burst of convection. The initial wind speed is kept 35 kt, closest to the TAFB classification. Wilfred could strengthen some during the next day or so before increasing upper-level westerlies winds likely begin by Sunday. A gradual weakening is expected into early next week, though the model guidance is in worse agreement than the last advisory due to the positioning of an upper-level low. The forecast continues to show the storm ending up on the convergent side of the low and dissipating, close to the previous one. Wilfred is moving west-northwestward at about 16 kt, after accounting for a re-positioning westward. Most of the guidance agrees on a scenario that maintains this track for the next few days, with a turn toward the west as the cyclones dissipates. The new forecast is closest to the GFS-based guidance. Similar to the intensity forecast, however, there are some models that suggest Wilfred could slow down and turn to the right in a couple of days if it is stronger than anticipated. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 12.5N 34.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 13.2N 36.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 14.3N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 15.4N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 16.4N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 17.1N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 17.5N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2020 12:10:20 UTC