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Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL232020
500 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

There haven't been a lot of changes with Wilfred today, with the 
northern side of the circulation looking rather dry while the 
center remains close to a burst of convection.  The initial wind 
speed is kept 35 kt, closest to the TAFB classification.  Wilfred 
could strengthen some during the next day or so before increasing 
upper-level westerlies winds likely begin by Sunday.  A gradual 
weakening is expected into early next week, though the model 
guidance is in worse agreement than the last advisory due to the 
positioning of an upper-level low.  The forecast continues to 
show the storm ending up on the convergent side of the low and 
dissipating, close to the previous one.  

Wilfred is moving west-northwestward at about 16 kt, after 
accounting for a re-positioning westward.  Most of the guidance 
agrees on a scenario that maintains this track for the next few 
days, with a turn toward the west as the cyclones dissipates.  The 
new forecast is closest to the GFS-based guidance.  Similar to the 
intensity forecast, however, there are some models that suggest 
Wilfred could slow down and turn to the right in a couple of days if 
it is stronger than anticipated. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/2100Z 12.5N  34.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 13.2N  36.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 14.3N  39.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 15.4N  42.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 16.4N  45.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  21/0600Z 17.1N  48.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 17.5N  50.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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