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TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222020
0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE
REFUGE...LOUISIANA...INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN
ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE...AND LAKE CALCASIEU
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT 
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS 
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR 
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER 
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N  94.5W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......170NE  30SE  40SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N  94.5W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N  94.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.0N  95.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE  30SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.5N  96.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  30SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.8N  96.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.1N  96.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.5N  95.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.1N  94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 31.9N  91.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N  94.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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