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TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222020
1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF BAFFIN
BAY TEXAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE
REFUGE...LOUISIANA...INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN
ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE...AND 
LAKE CALCASIEU
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING 
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... 
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION 
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM 
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS 
A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS 
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM 
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. 
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL 
OFFICIALS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N  93.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......170NE  30SE  40SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N  93.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N  92.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.6N  93.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...140NE  30SE  40SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.1N  95.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...130NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.6N  95.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.0N  96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.6N  95.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.2N  94.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 32.1N  92.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 34.4N  89.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N  93.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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