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Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020
Vicky remains a strongly sheared and poorly organized tropical
storm. The low-level center is displaced to the west-southwest of
the main area of deep convection due to strong westerly vertical
wind shear. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on the
earlier ASCAT data, which is well above the Dvorak estimates.
Vicky is expected to remain in hostile wind shear conditions while
traversing 26 C waters, so it seems likely that weakening should
occur. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the model
guidance and shows gradual weakening during the next few days.
Vicky is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of days, but
it is always tricky to figure out when these systems will lose all
of its convection since it is forecast to stay over relatively warm
The storm continues to more west-northwestward, a little to the
left of the previous track at 285/9. Vicky should gradually turn
westward later today and west-southwestward in a couple of days
when it becomes a shallow cyclone and moves in the low-level flow.
The new track forecast is just a little south of the previous one to
be closer to the latest consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 21.6N 33.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 21.9N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 22.0N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 22.0N 38.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 21.7N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1800Z 21.4N 42.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z 20.8N 44.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW