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TROPICAL STORM TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202020
1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  47.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......140NE  60SE  40SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  47.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N  46.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.9N  48.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  50SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.1N  49.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  70SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.4N  50.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.9N  52.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  20SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.3N  53.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  90SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.5N  55.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 24.0N  57.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 27.1N  60.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N  47.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 
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