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HURRICANE SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020
2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
TAMPA FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 3( 6) 5(11) 5(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20)
ST MARKS FL 34 3 3( 6) 4(10) 4(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19)
APALACHICOLA 34 5 8(13) 9(22) 6(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30)
APALACHICOLA 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 6 7(13) 6(19) 4(23) 2(25) 1(26) X(26)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 13 11(24) 17(41) 5(46) 1(47) 1(48) X(48)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 22 13(35) 25(60) 7(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50 2 2( 4) 6(10) 4(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
COLUMBUS GA 34 2 3( 5) 7(12) 9(21) 6(27) 2(29) X(29)
BIRMINGHAM AL 34 2 4( 6) 10(16) 11(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31)
BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 3 4( 7) 25(32) 15(47) 6(53) 1(54) X(54)
MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13)
MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
WHITING FLD FL 34 28 23(51) 25(76) 5(81) 2(83) X(83) X(83)
WHITING FLD FL 50 2 4( 6) 18(24) 8(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35)
WHITING FLD FL 64 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12)
PENSACOLA FL 34 58 16(74) 13(87) 2(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90)
PENSACOLA FL 50 4 5( 9) 21(30) 8(38) 1(39) 1(40) X(40)
PENSACOLA FL 64 2 1( 3) 8(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 11 1(12) 1(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
MOBILE AL 34 56 28(84) 11(95) 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
MOBILE AL 50 3 23(26) 36(62) 10(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74)
MOBILE AL 64 X 12(12) 29(41) 8(49) X(49) 1(50) X(50)
GULFPORT MS 34 57 30(87) 8(95) 1(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97)
GULFPORT MS 50 4 37(41) 26(67) 6(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75)
GULFPORT MS 64 2 24(26) 23(49) 4(53) X(53) 1(54) X(54)
STENNIS MS 34 29 48(77) 12(89) 2(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92)
STENNIS MS 50 3 21(24) 23(47) 4(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53)
STENNIS MS 64 1 13(14) 14(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31)
BURAS LA 34 48 30(78) 8(86) 1(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88)
BURAS LA 50 3 19(22) 10(32) 2(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35)
BURAS LA 64 2 15(17) 7(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 29 22(51) 8(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 3 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
JACKSON MS 34 3 6( 9) 21(30) 6(36) 2(38) 1(39) X(39)
JACKSON MS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 8 37(45) 18(63) 4(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 2 6( 8) 8(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 7(10) 5(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 3 10(13) 13(26) 4(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 3 9(12) 10(22) 3(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27)
MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ALEXANDRIA LA 34 3 2( 5) 5(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 3 4( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 3 4( 7) 5(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FORT POLK LA 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10)
LAKE CHARLES 34 3 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
CAMERON LA 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
JASPER TX 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
KOUNTZE TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PENSACOLA NAS 34 87 5(92) 4(96) X(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97)
PENSACOLA NAS 50 9 15(24) 19(43) 4(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48)
PENSACOLA NAS 64 3 4( 7) 9(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
KEESLER AB 34 78 18(96) 2(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
KEESLER AB 50 7 51(58) 23(81) 4(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87)
KEESLER AB 64 2 25(27) 28(55) 6(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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