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HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192020
1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST.
LOUIS MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...
AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE
FLORIDA
* MOBILE BAY
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF BAY ST. LOUIS TO NAVARRE FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
* BAY ST. LOUIS WESTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT 
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS 
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR 
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER 
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N  88.2W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE  30SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 120SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N  88.2W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N  88.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.6N  88.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.2N  88.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.0N  87.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.9N  86.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.6N  85.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 33.0N  83.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N  88.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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