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TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192020
2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE...AND MOBILE BAY.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM THE
OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE
* MOBILE BAY
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N  81.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N  81.9W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N  81.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 26.4N  83.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 27.3N  85.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.0N  86.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 28.5N  88.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 29.0N  89.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 29.7N  89.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.1N  89.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 33.1N  87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N  81.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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