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Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020
 
Rene continues to produced puffs of deep convection that are 
continually being sheared away by nearly 30 kt of westerly 
shear. These brief convective bursts have not been sufficiently 
organized to warrant a Dvorak classification for about 12 hours, so 
if the convective organization does not increase soon, Rene could 
become a remnant low tonight. Continued shear and a very dry 
mid-level environment should result in Rene's remnants dissipating 
by 60 hours, if not sooner. 

Rene's forward speed has slowed since the last advisory, with a 
westward drift of 270/02 the current estimate. The shallow cyclone 
should accelerate west-southwestward or southwestward in the 
low-level flow by 24 hours and continue on that general motion until 
dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted south of the 
previous one toward the new multi-model consensus. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 27.2N  47.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 27.3N  48.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  15/0000Z 26.9N  49.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/1200Z 26.2N  50.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0000Z 25.5N  51.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brennan
 
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