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Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020
 
The deep convection associated with Rene has gradually decreased 
over the past several hours, with only a few sporadic patches 
remaining. A recent ASCAT overpass showed peak winds of 28 kt in the 
northeastern quadrant, while the latest Dvorak intensity estimates 
from TAFB and SAB suggest the system is 30 kt. Therefore the initial 
intensity is being lowered to 30 kt. The depression is forecast to 
battle dry air for the next several days, with SHIPS guidance 
indicating that the mid-level relative humidity will decrease to 
under 40 percent in a few days. Also, it appears that there will be 
increasing subsidence over the system starting in a couple of days 
due to a ridge building to the northwest of the cyclone. Neither of 
these conditions bode well for maintaining organized deep 
convection. And, with it anticipated that the depression will 
struggle to maintain convection it is expected to slowly spin down 
over the next several days. The official forecast shows Rene 
degenerating into a remnant low in 5 days, but that timing is low 
confidence, as the system may generate just enough convection over 
warm waters to continue to be classified as a tropical cyclone 
longer than that. The alternative scenario is that the system could 
become a remnant low or open into a trough even sooner. The NHC 
intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one mainly 
due to the decrease in initial intensity, and is in good agreement 
with the various intensity consensus values.
 
Rene continues to move northwestward, now at 11 kt. A northwestward
motion around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the
eastern Atlantic should continue into tonight. On Sunday, Rene is
forecast to slow down as the ridge builds to the northwest and north
of the cyclone. By Tuesday, Rene is expected to turn westward and
then west-southwestward to southwestward under the influence of the
building ridge. The NHC track forecast is very little changed from
the previous one, and is near the middle of the track guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 23.2N  44.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 24.5N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 26.0N  47.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 27.0N  47.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 27.3N  48.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  15/0000Z 27.0N  48.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 26.3N  49.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 25.0N  52.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 24.0N  56.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
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Forecaster Latto
 
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