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Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020
 
The last of the deep convection near the center of Paulette 
dissipated early this morning, and the circulation now consists of 
low-topped shower activity with the cloud tops warmer than -30 
degrees C. The nearest shower activity that could qualify as deep 
convection is nearly 100 n mi from the cyclone's center and appears 
to be associated with a frontal boundary. A pair of recent ASCAT 
overpasses sampled peak winds of 33 kt, and therefore the initial 
advisory intensity is being lowered to 35 kt. Moderate-to-strong 
vertical wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures are expected 
to continue to weaken Paulette, and the cyclone is forecast to 
become a remnant low within 36 h. If the deep convection does not 
return to Paulette soon, then the cyclone could be declared a 
remnant low by as early as this evening. 

Paulette is moving eastward at 12 kt, and this general motion is 
expected to continue through Wednesday as the cyclone remains 
embedded in the flow around a mid-latitude trough to its north. The 
trough is expected to lift out of the region in about 36 h, and a 
ridge is forecast to build in its place in a couple of days. This 
evolution should cause Paulette, or its remnants, to slow down and 
make a 180 degree right turn over the course of a couple of days. By 
late week, whatever is left of the cyclone should be moving 
west-southwestward. An alternate scenario depicted by a couple of 
the models is that Paulette never escapes the flow around the trough 
and continues to move east-northeast until it dissipates. The latest 
NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the previous one, but 
is somewhat uncertain after 36 h due to the diverging model 
solutions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 35.0N  22.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 35.2N  20.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 35.6N  18.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 35.9N  16.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1200Z 35.6N  15.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  25/0000Z 34.9N  15.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1200Z 33.9N  18.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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