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Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020
 
Conventional GOES-16 visible and enhanced BD-curve satellite imagery 
show that Paulette has merged with the large baroclinic zone 
extending over the north-central Atlantic.  Deep convection just to 
the north of the surface center that was noted on earlier microwave 
images has dissipated.  Therefore, the system is now classified as 
extratropical cyclone and this is the last NHC advisory. The initial 
intensity is conservatively lowered to 75 kt based on 1221 UTC 
scatterometer data, earlier Dvorak intensity estimates and a SATCON 
analysis of 64 kt. 
 
The NHC intensity forecast is based on a blend of the global models 
and is just above the HCCA multi-model consensus. Although not 
specified in the NHC forecast, there is some chance that Paulette 
could reacquire tropical or subtropical characteristics later this 
week or over the weekend when it turns southward back over warmer 
oceanic temperatures. This possibility will be monitored for 
inclusion in future Tropical Weather Outlooks, if necessary. 
 
The post-tropical cyclone's initial motion is east-northeastward, 
or 060/30 kt. The low is expected to continue quickly in this 
general motion through Thursday morning within the deep-layer 
mid-latitude flow.  By mid-period, Post-Tropical Paulette is 
expected to slow down and turn southeastward to southward as it 
moves on the west side of mid- to upper-level low to the east of the 
cyclone.  The new track forecast is based primarily on the HCCA and 
TVCA consensus aids.
 
Paulette is producing a large area of high seas.  The maximum seas
estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the
hurricane are up to 50 feet.  Swells from Post-Tropical Cyclone 
Paulette have spread far away from the center and continue to affect 
Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast.
 
This is the last NHC advisory on Paulette. Additional information
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 43.3N  45.2W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  17/0000Z 45.0N  39.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  17/1200Z 46.2N  35.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  18/0000Z 45.1N  33.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  18/1200Z 42.5N  32.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  19/0000Z 39.5N  32.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  19/1200Z 37.0N  32.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  20/1200Z 35.0N  32.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  21/1200Z 34.0N  32.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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