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Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020
 
Paulette is looking less and less tropical by the hour. 
Geostationary satellite and microwave data indicate that the 
low-level center is exposed to the south of the main area of deep 
convection.  The hurricane is also very near a baroclinic zone and 
stable air is wrapping into the southern half of the circulation.  
An earlier ASCAT pass showed peak winds close to 80 kt, and since 
that instrument can't resolve peak winds in a hurricane, the initial
intensity remains 85 kt near the high end of the satellite intensity
estimates.
 
Paulette is forecast to move over much cooler waters and into
an environment of strong wind shear and dry air, therefore,
weakening is expected.  The hurricane is forecast to become an
extratropical cyclone later today as it moves over SSTs of around
20C and gets tangled up with a nearby front.  Although not
explicitly forecast, there is a chance that Paulette could regain
tropical or subtropical characteristics late this weekend or early
next week when it moves southward back over warmer waters.
The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous
one, which is a blend of the intensity consensus models and the GFS.
 
The hurricane continues to race east-northeastward at about 25 kt.
A continued fast east-northeastward motion within the mid-latitude
westerlies is expected for another day or so.  After that,
Post-Tropical Paulette is expected to slow down and turn
southeastward and then southward as it moves on the west side of a
deep-layer low pressure system.  The new track forecast is similar
to the previous one and lies between the HCCA and TVCA consensus
models.
 
Paulette is producing a large area of high seas.  The maximum seas
estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the
hurricane are 51 feet.  Swells from Paulette have spread far
away from the center and continue to affect Atlantic Canada,
Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 41.9N  49.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 43.9N  43.7W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  17/0600Z 45.5N  38.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  17/1800Z 45.6N  34.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  18/0600Z 43.8N  33.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  18/1800Z 41.1N  33.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  19/0600Z 38.5N  33.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  20/0600Z 35.3N  33.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  21/0600Z 33.5N  33.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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