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Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

Paulette is gradually losing tropical characteristics.  
Geostationary satellite and microwave data indicate that the 
low-level center is located near the southern edge of the main area 
of deep convection and that the hurricane is starting to get 
tangled up with a nearby baroclinic zone.  A recent ASCAT-B 
overpass showed maximum winds in the 75-80 kt range in the 
southwestern quadrant. It is quite impressive to see such high 
values from that instrument given that ASCAT usually can't resolve 
the maximum winds in hurricanes.  The initial intensity is 
therefore held at 85 kt.  

Since Paulette is forecast to move over much cooler waters and into 
an environment of strong wind shear and dry air, weakening is 
expected.  Paulette is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone 
in about 24 hours when it will likely merge with the nearby front 
and move over SSTs of about 20 C.  There is some chance that 
Paulette could regain tropical or subtropical characteristics 
toward the end of the forecast period when it is expected to move 
back over warmer waters.  The NHC intensity forecast is largely an 
update of the previous one, which is a blend of the intensity 
consensus models and the GFS.

The hurricane continues to race east-northeastward at about 24 kt.  
A continued fast east-northeastward motion within the mid-latitude 
westerlies is expected for another day or so.  After that, 
Post-tropical Paulette is expected to slow down and turn 
southeastward and then southward as it moves on the west side of a 
deep-layer low pressure system.  The new track forecast is similar 
to the previous one and lies between the HCCA and TVCA consensus 
models.
 
Paulette is producing a large area of high seas.  The maximum seas 
estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the 
hurricane are 52 feet.  Swells from the hurricane have spread far 
away from the center and continue to affect Atlantic Canada, 
Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 40.7N  52.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 42.6N  47.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 44.7N  40.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  17/1200Z 45.7N  36.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  18/0000Z 44.8N  34.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  18/1200Z 42.4N  33.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  19/0000Z 40.1N  33.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  20/0000Z 36.8N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  21/0000Z 34.4N  34.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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